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As the electric vehicle (EV) industry continues to evolve, so too does the policy landscape that shapes its future. Changes to federal EV tax credits and trade policies are raising questions about the near-term evolution of clean transportation investment, especially in battery R&D, manufacturing, and grid infrastructure.
We spoke with Dave Rubin, Head of Policy at Proterra, a leading U.S. commercial EV battery manufacturer, to get his perspective on how policy decisions today could shape the trajectory of battery innovation, domestic manufacturing, and national energy resilience in the years to come.
There’s a lot of uncertainty around the future of EV tax credit and other federal incentives with the signing of ‘Big Beautiful Bill’. From your perspective, how do these shifts impact battery R&D and storage infrastructure investment?
These incentives have always been a great deal of help in accelerating both EV adoption & battery innovation. When we talk about R&D, whether for mobile or stationary storage, we’re not just looking at product development; we’re talking about building the next generation of American infrastructure.
We’re seeing rapid advances in battery chemistry – gigafactories around the country are ramping up to scale next-gen technologies, and this is certainly exciting. But any uncertainty or pause in federal support creates a layer of uncertainty in the market. This means an extra layer of risk for investors and manufacturers who may think twice about spending new capital on battery technologies or large infrastructure development. Battery production needs long lead times and significant initial capital, so predictability helps enable that.
Innovation is not for sale, and companies will continue to do R&D regardless of the policy environment. But there’s no question that government leadership in China and the EU are more committed than ever to clean tech – indeed, they see it as unlocking wholly new pathways for economic growth, job creation, and tech leadership. In this landscape, there still remains an opportunity for Washington to seize the moment and ensure U.S. global leadership on this critical technology. And we are starting to see initial recognition from policymakers on the importance of this inflection point, particularly in critical mineral policy and manufacturing tax credits. But we need clear and consistent signals from Washington across the whole value chain to ensure the success of that next generation of American competitiveness if we are to effectively scale battery storage on wheels and on the grid.
Now that the bill has been signed, what do you see as the broader implications for domestic battery manufacturing under these new policy changes?
The U.S. battery manufacturing industry has grown in recent years, thanks in no small part to federal programs and trade policies that have buoyed the industry’s growth. That said, with the passage of this bill, I think the industry will soon face various inflection points about what the future of the market – and the supply chain that supports it – looks like.
On the one hand, the phase-out of various tax credits that had been made available for manufacturers and purchasers by the Biden Administration are being accelerated. Similarly, some grant programs administered by agencies like the EPA, DOE, and others have seen broader pauses and face uncertainty under President Trump. While it’s tough to forecast the comprehensive impacts of these changes, it is reasonable to say that EV and battery manufacturers – in both the passenger and commercial vehicle space alike – will shift towards more total cost of ownership models.
At the same time, key tax credit policies were preserved in the One Big Beautiful Bill. A key one is the 45X advanced manufacturing credit, which incentives domestic production of cells, modules, inverters, and other key components for batteries and clean energy manufacturing. These provisions were revised to now include stricter requirements around content from foreign entities of concern and U.S. adversaries. As stringencies increase over time, the locus of U.S. battery manufacturing and development will be increasingly onshored and friendshored, putting a premium on suppliers that have invested in localized production.
Proterra’s batteries are designed and manufactured in the U.S., and we take great pride in that. But we don’t operate in a bubble; battery manufacturing today is dependent upon a very interconnected supply chain, from upstream material sourcing to component assembly. As the industry positions around these evolving changes, it is critical that policymakers advance regulation that not only drives capital investment in U.S. manufacturing capacity, but also recognizes the importance of whole-of-industry efforts to secure critical minerals, create a skilled workforce, and stimulate downstream demand.
How do batteries and EV tech fit into the broader national energy resilience conversation?
The battery industry is about more than just cars-it’s about energy resilience, economic security, and global competitiveness. As more renewable energy sources come online, and more data centers and EV fleets plug into the grid, resilience and flexibility will become mission critical. As we electrify and scale AI driven data centers, we are going to see tremendous load growth on the grid. Batteries-whether they are in cars or in stationary storage-are a fundamental method to managing that load. Batteries are mobile energy storage systems, and the better we account for them in our infrastructure strategy, the more resilient and flexible our grid will be.
That is why we are also advocating for standardized evaluation criteria in the transportation and energy storage sector. These two areas are converging and federal policy should support that reality.
The other aspect I want to mention is consideration of upstream mineral supply chains. We must leverage the minerals we have domestically. And for those where the U.S. has limited supply, we need sophisticated battery recycling policies and regimes to recapture those materials at the end of their useful life. The metals in these batteries can be re-used over and over. The paradigm has to change – these materials aren’t refuse. They are critical national assets that can secure emerging energy independence and national security needs.
You mentioned tariffs—how does Proterra view current trade efforts in light of domestic manufacturing goals?
There needs to be a balance between promoting domestic manufacturing and having partnerships across the globe to support resilient supply chains. Certainly, tariffs can create advantages in certain places, but they can also raise costs for U.S. manufacturers, counterproductively harming the businesses they were intended to protect by driving up costs.
Our view is that we need more “friendshoring” and “nearshoring” plans. Countries such as Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and EU countries are critical allies and partners in forming a competitive and resilient EV ecosystem. We need to think about these partners as forming the backbone of emerging industries and supply chains that preserve and advance collective security goals as we work in parallel to stand up a more robust domestic industrial base.
With the signing of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, what signals do you think this sends to global battery and EV investors looking at the U.S. market?
The bill sends a mixed signal. On one level, it shows an important evolution in policy thinking related to the interactions of energy and industrial policy. At the same time, there are portions of the bill that reduce or complicate access to incentives that helped assuage global investors making long-term bets in the U.S. market.
The U.S. has a real opportunity to lead in advanced battery tech; however, the ability to lead depends on a clearly articulated, forward-looking policy. Investors do not look at just one set of economics today; they look at future stability and consistency and whether there is a long-term commitment to the sector. This bill, while still preserving key support pillars for the U.S. battery industry, raises questions about the future of U.S. industry prospects in an increasingly competitive global market, at least in the near-term.
What I do take solace in, though, is that the U.S. remains a hub for global innovation, with unmatched talent, a strong research ecosystem, and a growing domestic demand for clean technologies. For global investors, that foundation is still attractive — but realizing the full potential of U.S. leadership will require policymakers to complement innovation with predictability, and to reaffirm the long-term commitment needed to keep the U.S. competitive in the global battery and EV race.
You can learn more about Proterra at proterra.com.
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