Nano One Materials Corp. has reaffirmed a licensing-led strategy for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode active material, pointing to an addressable market outside China that the company estimates at roughly $8 billion to $10 billion annually in 2026, rising to about $40 billion by 2035. The Vancouver-based process technology company intends to license its One-Pot process technology into regional markets through localized development companies, or DevCos, that pair its technology with regional partners, customers and capital. Nano One reports that LFP chemistries accounted for approximately 60% of global lithium-ion cell demand in 2025 — roughly 1.0 TWh — with demand outside China forecast to reach 2.1 TWh by 2035.
Highlights
- Demand for LFP outside China is projected to hit 2.1 TWh by 2035, equivalent to roughly 168 new cathode plants at 25,000 tonnes per annum each, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data cited by the company
- LFP accounts for more than 90% of energy storage installations, per International Energy Agency figures cited in the release
- The addressable LFP market outside China is estimated at $8–10 billion annually in 2026, forecast to reach approximately $40 billion by 2035
- Candiac’s expanded ~800 tpa production line is targeted for commissioning in the first half of 2027, with initial commercial agreements targeted for the end of 2026
Where LFP Demand Is Localizing
Nano One frames the opportunity around demand that is both growing and shifting geographically. North American growth is led by grid and AI data center storage, while European demand is led by battery-electric vehicles. The company cites BEV registration growth of 33.7% across 17 European markets in the first half of 2026.
| Indicator | Figure cited | Attributed source |
|---|---|---|
| LFP share of global lithium-ion cell demand, 2025 | ~60%, roughly 1.0 TWh | Benchmark Mineral Intelligence |
| LFP share of energy storage installations | More than 90% | International Energy Agency |
| BEV registration growth, 17 European markets, H1 2026 | 33.7% | E-Mobility Europe, New Automotive, FIER Automotive |
| Addressable LFP market outside China | ~$8–10B (2026) to ~$40B (2035) | BloombergNEF |
Policy is converting some of that demand into localization requirements. In the United States, the National Defense Authorization Act places restrictions on batteries from prohibited foreign entities beginning in 2028, with the 45X manufacturing credit maintained at US$35/kWh. The European Union and G7 have committed to diversified regional battery supply chains, and the International Energy Agency has warned that Chinese export controls announced in October 2025 place downstream cell production capacity outside China at risk.
The company positions its One-Pot process for that environment. The process makes cathode materials directly from non-sulfate metals or oxides feedstock, which Nano One says bypasses reliance on China-dominated precursor cathode active materials. The company adds that the technology reduces the need to manage certain byproduct waste streams, creating an easier permitting pathway in some regions.
How Would the DevCo Model Work?
For each target market, Nano One plans to establish or participate in development company vehicles — joint-venture-style entities created to advance development, finance, build and potentially operate LFP cathode plants. Rather than acting as sole shareholder of a project, the company would contribute technology, engineering and services while consortium partners contribute construction capital and offtake.
The structure is intended to let each plant be financed on its own merits, a standard practice in industrial technology licensing. Nano One says the approach supports a more capital-light development model and the capacity to pursue multiple projects across regions simultaneously.
“We no longer find ourselves alone in making the case for LFP cathode production outside of China—G7 leaders, U.S. defence procurement rules and the International Energy Agency have all echoed it this year. Our job now is to convert that momentum—advancing Candiac and establishing DevCos that bring partners and project development funding together with our technology, building recurring licensing and services revenue. I expect these efforts to enhance shareholder value and support long-term growth,” said Alex Holmes, Chief Executive Officer of Nano One.
Licensing Under Design One Build Many
Under its Design One Build Many strategy, Nano One intends to license the One-Pot process through flexible adoption paths, ranging from a direct technology license to a fully integrated package matched to each customer’s requirements. Revenue is intended to come from licensing fees and royalties, complemented by support services across the plant lifecycle — from pre-FID development through construction, commissioning, ramp-up and ongoing operations and maintenance.
The company describes the model as prudent and repeatable: de-risk each plant, keep the balance sheet capital-light, and grow recurring high-margin revenue as plants multiply. Alongside its core segments, Nano One says it is monitoring emerging chemistries including sodium-ion, with a view to applying its supply chain experience in feedstock pre-qualification and circularity.
Candiac Expansion and Commercial Timeline
Nano One reported in July that detailed engineering on the Candiac capacity expansion was 85% complete, with commissioning of the expanded ~800 tpa production line targeted for the first half of 2027. The existing ~200 tpa pilot line is already supporting customer sampling and product qualification.
Small-volume commercial supply discussions are underway with defense and energy storage customers, with initial commercial agreements targeted for the end of 2026. Holmes said the company expects to provide further updates in the coming months, including a dedicated update on supply chain qualification initiatives and the establishment of the DevCo vehicles.
